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NVO research report

Generated 2026-08-19 03:29 · status: complete

NVO — The Call

The Call

I think Novo Nordisk is a great business and a mediocre setup at $45.71. I’m not selling the franchise quality — the margins, returns on capital, and balance-sheet leverage are real — but I’m also not pretending this is a layup when free cash flow is only 28,989,000,000 against net income of 102,434,000,000, shareholder payouts ran to 53,151,000,000, and the stock sits below the 200-day average of 46.462 and 50-day average of 47.309 with consensus target value basically capped at $47. My call is simple: good company, wrong place to get aggressive. Conviction: 8/10

What This Company Actually Is

I see Novo as a branded metabolic-disease machine with a rare-disease side business, not a generic “pharma” bucket. It makes its money in Diabetes and Obesity Care and Rare Disease, then reinforces that economics with the delivery stack around the drugs — insulin pens, growth hormone pens, injection needles, and digital diabetes tools. That matters because this is not a commodity model. The proof is in the economics: 80.65% gross margin, 43.13% operating margin, and 35.35% net margin tell me the company sells products with real pricing power and clinical importance. My view: this is a real franchise, but right now the stock is being judged on whether that accounting profit turns into owner cash.

The Numbers That Matter

  • Revenue: 309.064 billion — scale matters here because it shows Novo’s profit engine is not small or fragile.
  • Gross profit: 250.276 billion — supports the 80.65% gross margin, which tells me the products are differentiated.
  • Operating income: 127.658 billion — paired with the 43.13% operating margin, this is elite operating performance.
  • Net income: 102.434 billion — the earnings base looks exceptional, but I care what survives capex.
  • R&D: 52.039 billion — important because these margins are not being faked by starving innovation.
  • Operating cash flow: 119.102 billion — healthy cash generation before reinvestment.
  • Capex: 90.113 billion — this is the swing factor in the whole case; capex consumed roughly 76% of operating cash flow.
  • Free cash flow: 28.989 billion — the key problem; it is only about 28.3% of net income.
  • P/FCF: 26.91 and FCF yield: 3.72% — this is why I reject the “cheap stock” argument.
  • Dividends paid: 51,763,000,000 and buybacks: 1,388,000,000 — total cash returned was 53,151,000,000, about 1.83x free cash flow.
  • ROIC: 29.73% — this is the cleanest quality metric in the file and far ahead of ABT 6.07%, AMGN 14.22%, AZN 12.69%, and GILD -3.66%.
  • ROCE: 39.93%, ROA: 19.57%, ROE: 59.09% — all support the view that this is a superior business, not just a hot product cycle.
  • Debt to equity: 0.63, net debt / EBITDA: 0.55, interest coverage: 86.86x — leverage is not the risk here.
  • Current ratio: 0.87, quick ratio: 0.66, cash ratio: 0.19 — liquidity is tighter than most investors probably assume.
  • Current assets: 172,453,000,000 vs current liabilities: 215,661,000,000 — a 43,208,000,000 working-capital deficit.
  • Days sales outstanding: 120.23 and days inventory outstanding: 294.02 — too long for me to ignore when cash conversion is already weak.
  • P/E: 11.30 and EV/EBITDA: 8.16 — optically cheap, yes; actually cheap, not unless cash flow improves.
  • PEG: 2.26 — growth is not free here.
  • Forward EPS average: 21.88 vs trailing EPS: 23.06 — near-term earnings are not obviously accelerating.
  • Price: $45.71 vs target consensus/median/high/low: $47 / $47 / $47 / $47 — there is basically no analyst upside left.
  • 50-day average: 47.309, 200-day average: 46.462, 20-day SMA: 47.483, 50-day EMA: 46.921 — the stock is below all of them.
  • 52-week low: $35.12 — that is the only clearly attractive reference point cited in the file.

Bull vs Bear — Who Wins

The bull case is straightforward and strong: Novo is a genuine franchise with elite profitability and returns. Gross margin 80.65%, operating margin 43.13%, net margin 35.35%, and ROIC 29.73% are not normal. Against peers, it is plainly better on quality and still cheaper on simple multiples like P/E 11.30 and EV/EBITDA 8.16. If I only cared about business quality, I would buy and move on.

The bear case is stronger today because it hits the part of the story the bulls are glossing over: cash. Free cash flow of 28.989 billion against net income of 102.434 billion is too weak to hand-wave away, especially when dividends plus buybacks of 53.151 billion exceeded free cash flow by 24.162 billion. Add in the tight liquidity — current ratio 0.87, quick ratio 0.66 — and a stock trading below the 200-day at 46.462 and 50-day at 47.309 while consensus fair value is only $47, and I think the bull case wins on company quality but loses on stock setup. My verdict: the bear argument wins here because it is arguing about what matters now — cash conversion and entry price — not whether Novo is a good business.

Red Flags

  • Free cash flow only 28.989 billion versus net income 102.434 billion.
  • Capex 90.113 billion is extremely heavy relative to operating cash flow 119.102 billion.
  • P/FCF 26.91 is not cheap for a stock with this cash profile.
  • Total shareholder payouts 53.151 billion exceeded free cash flow 28.989 billion.
  • Current ratio 0.87, quick ratio 0.66, cash ratio 0.19 show limited short-term cushion.
  • Current liabilities exceeded current assets by 43,208,000,000.
  • Days sales outstanding 120.23 and days inventory outstanding 294.02 are stretched.
  • Forward EPS average 21.88 is below trailing EPS 23.06.
  • The stock is below the 20-day SMA 47.483, 50-day average 47.309, 50-day EMA 46.921, and 200-day average 46.462.
  • Consensus target is $47, barely above $45.71.

What I'd Do

I would not chase NVO at $45.71. My stance is wait. If the stock cannot reclaim at least the 200-day average of 46.462 and then the 50-day average of 47.309, I have no interest paying near a consensus target of $47 for a name with 3.72% FCF yield and 26.91x P/FCF. The better setup is one of two things: either a real technical reclaim above the 46.462–47.309 zone, showing the market is willing to re-rate it, or a much better price closer to the 52-week low of $35.12, where the margin of safety is obvious. Until one of those happens, I treat this as a watchlist stock, not a buy.

What Would Change My Mind

I would turn more constructive if the next evidence shows cash flow catching up to earnings — specifically, if free cash flow stops looking like a fraction of profit and shareholder payouts stop outrunning free cash flow. I would also change my mind positively if the stock decisively gets back above the 200-day average of 46.462 and 50-day average of 47.309 while still offering more than the token upside implied by the $47 analyst target band. I would turn outright negative on the business, not just the stock, if weak cash conversion persists, if liquidity deteriorates from the already weak current ratio of 0.87 and quick ratio of 0.66, or if returns on capital lose their edge and ROIC 29.73% starts converging toward peer mediocrity.

Glossary

  • Gross margin — Percentage of revenue left after direct production costs.
  • Operating margin — Percentage of revenue left after operating costs like R&D and selling expenses.
  • Net margin — Percentage of revenue left as profit after all expenses.
  • R&D — Research and development spending to create and improve drugs and products.
  • Operating cash flow — Cash generated by the business before capital spending.
  • Capex — Capital expenditures; money spent on factories, equipment, and other long-term assets.
  • Free cash flow — Operating cash flow minus capex; cash left for dividends, buybacks, debt paydown, or reinvestment.
  • P/FCF — Price-to-free-cash-flow ratio; how much investors pay for each unit of free cash flow.
  • FCF yield — Free cash flow divided by market value; a cash return measure for shareholders.
  • ROIC — Return on invested capital; profit earned on the capital used in the business.
  • ROCE — Return on capital employed; profit generated from the capital actively used.
  • ROA — Return on assets; profit earned from the company’s asset base.
  • ROE — Return on equity; profit earned on shareholders’ equity.
  • Debt to equity — Debt compared with shareholders’ equity.
  • Net debt / EBITDA — Net debt compared with operating earnings before non-cash charges; a leverage measure.
  • Interest coverage — How many times operating profit covers interest expense.
  • Current ratio — Current assets divided by current liabilities; a short-term liquidity measure.
  • Quick ratio — Liquid current assets divided by current liabilities; a stricter liquidity measure.
  • Cash ratio — Cash divided by current liabilities; the strictest liquidity measure.
  • Working capital — Current assets minus current liabilities.
  • Days sales outstanding — Average number of days it takes to collect receivables.
  • Days inventory outstanding — Average number of days inventory sits before being sold.
  • P/E — Price-to-earnings ratio; stock price relative to earnings per share.
  • EV/EBITDA — Enterprise value divided by EBITDA; a common whole-business valuation measure.
  • PEG — P/E divided by growth rate; a quick check on whether valuation outruns growth.
  • EPS — Earnings per share; profit allocated to each share.
  • Consensus target — Average analyst price target for the stock.
  • SMA — Simple moving average; average stock price over a set period.
  • EMA — Exponential moving average; moving average that weights recent prices more heavily.
  • 52-week low/high — Lowest and highest stock prices over the last year.
  • Margin of safety — Buying at a price low enough to leave room for error.

This report was generated by AI from public financial data for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Language models make mistakes — verify all figures independently before making any investment decision.

Raw lens outputs
Business Quality
I’d call Novo Nordisk a **great business**, full stop. Not a perfect stock at every price, not a riskless story, but the numbers here absolutely look like a real franchise rather than marketing dressed up as quality.

## How it actually makes money

The company makes money by developing, manufacturing, and selling branded pharmaceuticals and related delivery devices. The JSON is clear: it operates through **Diabetes and Obesity Care** and **Rare Disease**, and it also sells **insulin pens, growth hormone pens, injection needles, and digital diabetes tools**. So this is not some vague “platform” story. It monetizes medicines and the delivery ecosystem around them.

And the income statement shows that model is very profitable:

- **Revenue:** 309.064 billion
- **Gross profit:** 250.276 billion
- **Operating income:** 127.658 billion
- **Net income:** 102.434 billion

That gives you:
- **Gross margin:** 80.65%
- **Operating margin:** 43.13%
- **Net margin:** 35.35%

A gross margin is what’s left after direct production costs. An **80.65% gross margin** in a manufacturing-heavy healthcare business tells me the company is selling products with real economic value, not commodity pills. The **43.13% operating margin** is even more important: after R&D and operating expenses, nearly half of revenue still drops to operating profit. That is elite.

## Does the moat show up in the numbers?

Yes — and this is where I stop listening to stories and look at the scoreboard.

A moat means some durable advantage that lets a company earn unusually high returns for a long time. The cleanest evidence is **returns on capital** — how much profit management earns on the money tied up in the business.

Novo’s numbers are outstanding:

- **ROIC:** 29.73%
- **ROCE:** 39.93%
- **ROA:** 19.57%
- **ROE:** 59.09%

ROIC, return on invested capital, is the one I care about most. **29.73%** is not normal. That says for every unit of capital invested in the business, it’s generating exceptional profit.

Now compare that with peers provided in the JSON:

- **ABT ROIC:** 6.07%
- **AMGN ROIC:** 14.22%
- **AZN ROIC:** 12.69%
- **GILD ROIC:** -3.66%

Novo at **29.73%** is not just “good for pharma.” It’s miles ahead of every peer listed. Same story on operating margin:

- **NVO:** 43.13%
- **ABT:** 17.03%
- **AMGN:** 33.18%
- **AZN:** 22.69%
- **GILD:** -4.90%

And net margin:

- **NVO:** 35.35%
- **ABT:** 11.65%
- **AMGN:** 22.93%
- **AZN:** 17.02%
- **GILD:** -10.64%

That’s what a moat looks like in numbers. Not a PowerPoint. Not management adjectives. **Superior margins plus superior returns on capital versus peers.**

## Pricing power? Yes, the margins say yes.

Pricing power means the company can charge enough, or hold pricing well enough, that inflation, competition, and operating costs don’t crush profitability. I never “infer” pricing power from brand prestige. I infer it when margins stay abnormally high.

Here the evidence is strong:

- **Gross margin 80.65%**
- **Operating margin 43.13%**
- **Net margin 35.35%**

Those are the margins of a company customers, payers, and the market are still willing to reward economically. If this business lacked pricing power or product differentiation, you would not see this kind of spread between revenue and profit.

The heavy **R&D spend of 52.039 billion** makes this even more impressive. They are not underinvesting to juice earnings. They spend a lot on innovation and still print a **43.13% operating margin**.

## Capital intensity: one yellow flag, but not a deal breaker

This is where I don’t let great margins seduce me too easily.

- **Operating cash flow:** 119.102 billion
- **Capex:** 90.113 billion
- **Free cash flow:** 28.989 billion

That capex bill is huge. Free cash flow, cash left after capital spending, is what really matters because accounting profits don’t pay shareholders — cash does. And on that basis, the business looks less magical than the income statement.

Yes, it still generated **28.989 billion** in free cash flow, but compared with **102.434 billion** in net income, cash conversion is not especially pretty in this period. The valuation data also reflects that:

- **P/FCF:** 26.91
- **FCF yield:** 3.72%

That’s not cheap on free cash flow. So I think this is a great business with a more demanding reinvestment profile than the headline margins suggest.

## Balance sheet and financial risk

This part looks solid enough, not pristine, but solid.

- **Debt to equity:** 0.63
- **Net debt to EBITDA:** 0.55
- **Interest coverage:** 86.86

Interest coverage tells you how easily operating profit covers interest expense. **86.86x** means debt is not strangling this company. That is extremely comfortable.

Liquidity is less attractive:

- **Current ratio:** 0.87
- **Quick ratio:** 0.66
-
Forensic Accountant
I’m putting the market chatter aside and following the cash.

## What looks clean

**Debt load is not the problem here.**  
On the balance sheet, **total debt is 130,958,000,000** and **net debt is 104,494,000,000**. That’s meaningful debt in absolute terms, but coverage is strong:

- **Interest coverage: 86.86x**  
  That means operating earnings cover interest expense almost 87 times. Very comfortable.
- Income statement backs that up: **operating income 127,658,000,000** versus **interest expense 4,207,000,000**.
- **Net debt / EBITDA: 0.55x**  
  Anything around half a turn of EBITDA is light. This is not a balance sheet choking on leverage.
- **Debt to equity: 0.63x**  
  Reasonable, especially with this level of profitability.

**The business is highly profitable.**  
Margins are excellent:

- **Gross margin: 80.65%**
- **Operating margin: 43.13%**
- **Net margin: 35.35%**

Those are elite numbers. Also:

- **ROE: 59.09%**
- **ROA: 19.57%**
- **ROIC: 29.73%**

I don’t blindly trust ROE because leverage can juice it, but here leverage is not excessive, so this is real quality.

**Equity is positive and retained earnings are solid.**  
No negative equity problem here.

- **Total equity: 194,047,000,000**
- **Retained earnings: 195,298,000,000**

That retained earnings balance is healthy, and there’s no sign in this data of an accumulated deficit.

---

## What I don’t like

### 1) Cash generation quality is weaker than earnings quality
This is the biggest issue in the file.

- **Net income: 102,434,000,000**
- **Operating cash flow: 119,102,000,000**

At first glance, operating cash flow is above net income, which is usually good. But then capex hits hard:

- **Capex: 90,113,000,000**
- **Free cash flow: 28,989,000,000**

Free cash flow is the cash left after capital spending. That’s the money available for dividends, buybacks, debt reduction, or building cash. Here, free cash flow is only about **28.3% of net income** (**28,989,000,000 / 102,434,000,000**). That’s a big drop-off.

So I’ll say it plainly: **earnings look much stronger than owner cash this year**.

### 2) Shareholder payouts outran free cash flow
This is a concrete red flag.

- **Dividends paid: 51,763,000,000**
- **Buybacks: 1,388,000,000**
- Total cash returned: **53,151,000,000**

Against:

- **Free cash flow: 28,989,000,000**

That means payouts were about **1.83x free cash flow**. In plain English: they returned **24,162,000,000** more than free cash flow generated.

That doesn’t automatically mean fraud or distress. They still posted **net change in cash of 10,809,000,000**, and the balance sheet shows **cash of 26,464,000,000**. But as a discipline test, I don’t love it. **When dividends plus buybacks exceed free cash flow, management is leaning on the balance sheet or other financing/cash sources rather than current-year excess cash generation.**

### 3) Liquidity is tight
Short-term liquidity ratios are not where I’d like them.

- **Current ratio: 0.87**
- **Quick ratio: 0.66**
- **Cash ratio: 0.19**

And the raw balance sheet agrees:

- **Current assets: 172,453,000,000**
- **Current liabilities: 215,661,000,000**

Current liabilities exceed current assets by **43,208,000,000**. That doesn’t mean imminent trouble—many strong businesses run lean—but it does mean **they are not carrying a fat liquidity cushion**.

### 4) Working capital efficiency has some odd-looking stress signals
Two figures jump out:

- **Days sales outstanding: 120.23 days**
- **Days inventory outstanding: 294.02 days**

Those are long. In simple terms, receivables are taking about 120 days to convert and inventory sits around 294 days. The reported **cash conversion cycle is -472.02 days**, which is unusual-looking, but I won’t invent why because the payable-days component is not provided. I’ll just say this: **DSO and inventory days are high enough that I’d want to inspect working capital closely in a full filing.**

---

## Dividend and buyback discipline

The dividend itself looks fine on earnings:

- **Dividend payout ratio: 44.64%**

But I care more about **cash payout safety** than earnings payout safety. On cash:

- **Dividend per share: 7.5**
- **FCF per share: 11.05**

That suggests dividend coverage by free cash flow per share is present. But the annual cash flow statement is the harder proof, and there the total **dividends paid of 51,763,000,000** exceeded total **free cash flow of 28,989,000,000** even before counting **1,388,000,000** of buybacks.

So my read is
Valuation
At **$45.71**, I’d call NVO **fair to slightly expensive for a value buyer, but reasonable for a quality buyer**.

### What growth is already priced in
The cleanest tell here is the **PEG of 2.26**. PEG is P/E divided by growth; above 1 usually means you’re paying more than the growth rate alone would justify. So even though the stock’s **P/E is only 11.30**, the market is not pricing this like a no-growth business — it’s pricing in growth, but not at a bargain rate.

The forward setup actually shows a bit of tension:
- Trailing **EPS** in statements: **23.06**
- Forward **EPS average**: **21.88**
- Current **P/E**: **11.30**

That says the current multiple is low in absolute terms, but **forward earnings are expected to be below trailing earnings** based on the data provided. So the market is already assuming this business can remain very profitable, but it is **not** paying up for accelerating near-term earnings.

### Is the market’s ask reasonable?
I’d say **mostly yes**.

Why:
- **EV/EBITDA 8.16** looks modest for a company with **gross margin 80.65%**, **operating margin 43.13%**, **net margin 35.35%**, and **ROIC 29.73%**. EV/EBITDA compares the total business value to operating cash earnings; under 10 for this quality is not demanding.
- Against peers, NVO is actually cheaper on several metrics:
  - **P/E 11.30** vs **ABT 36.23**, **AMGN 26.22**, **AZN 23.79**
  - **EV/EBITDA 8.16** vs **ABT 22.38**, **AMGN 16.53**, **AZN 13.47**
  - **P/S 4.00** is roughly in line with **AZN 4.05** and below **ABT 4.19**, **AMGN 6.02**
- Balance sheet risk looks manageable:
  - **net debt / EBITDA 0.55**
  - **interest coverage 86.86**

So the market’s ask is not crazy. You are paying for a **very high-quality, very profitable business**, but not at a heroic multiple.

### What gives me pause
Two things:

1. **Analyst upside is basically gone.**
   - **Target consensus: 47**
   - **Target median: 47**
   - **Target high/low: 47 / 47**
   - Stock price: **45.71**

That’s only about **$1.29** of upside to the consensus target. When the stock is already sitting just below target, I’m not excited to chase it.

2. **The stock is below key trend levels, not above them.**
   - **50-day average: 47.309**
   - **200-day average: 46.462**
   - **20-day SMA: 47.483**
   - Current price: **45.71**

That tells me the market is not giving it momentum sponsorship right now. It’s not broken, but it’s not being bid aggressively either.

### Would I pay today’s price?
**If I’m a long-term quality investor, I can justify paying it.** The valuation is not rich relative to the company’s margins and returns, and it screens cheaper than several peers.

**If I’m disciplined on upside versus risk, I would not buy aggressively at $45.71.** The stock is trading only modestly below the universal analyst target of **$47**, and still below its moving averages. That’s not enough reward.

### What would make it interesting?
I’d get more interested in two scenarios:

- **A pullback toward the 52-week low band**, meaning closer to **$35.12** than to today’s **$45.71**. That would create a much better margin of safety.
- **A clear reclaim of the moving averages**, especially above the **200-day at 46.462** and **50-day at 47.309**, ideally with room to move beyond the **$47** analyst target band. Right now, it’s stuck underneath them.

You can also frame it this way: if I’m buying today, I’m accepting a stock at **$45.71** with consensus fair value around **$47**. That’s basically buying near fair value, not at a discount.

### Bottom line
I think NVO is **fairly priced**: **not cheap enough for a value investor, but acceptable for a quality investor** who wants strong profitability and can live with limited near-term upside. **I would not chase it here; I’d want either a cheaper entry closer to the 52-week low of $35.12 or technical confirmation above the $46.46–$47.31 moving-average zone.**
Short Seller
I would not own this stock here. The short case is not that this is a bad business — it clearly is not. The short case is that the market is still giving it the benefit of the doubt while the hard data already shows weaker economics, weaker liquidity, and a stock that has lost momentum.

## My bear case

### 1) The valuation is not cheap in the one place that matters most right now: cash flow
A company can look optically cheap on earnings and still be expensive if free cash flow — cash left after capital spending — is weak.

Here, the warning lights are obvious:

- **P/FCF is 26.91x**
- **FCF yield is 3.72%**
- **Free cash flow was 28,989,000,000** against **net income of 102,434,000,000**

That means free cash flow is only about **28% of net income**. For a company this profitable on paper, that is a big quality gap. Bulls will point to the **P/E of 11.30x** and **EV/EBITDA of 8.16x** and say it’s cheap. I think that’s the trap. If the earnings are not translating into cash because capital spending is consuming the cash, then the low P/E is less comforting.

The statement data makes this plain:

- **Operating cash flow: 119,102,000,000**
- **Capex: 90,113,000,000**
- **Free cash flow: 28,989,000,000**

Capex is eating roughly **76% of operating cash flow**. That is not the profile I want to pay nearly **27x free cash flow** for.

### 2) The balance sheet is good on leverage, but weak on near-term liquidity
This is not a debt blow-up story. Leverage is manageable:

- **Debt-to-equity: 0.63**
- **Net debt / EBITDA: 0.55**
- **Interest coverage: 86.86x**

But near-term liquidity is weaker than people probably realize:

- **Current ratio: 0.87**
- **Quick ratio: 0.66**
- **Cash ratio: 0.19**

A current ratio below 1 means current liabilities exceed current assets. And the balance sheet confirms it:

- **Current assets: 172,453,000,000**
- **Current liabilities: 215,661,000,000**

That is a working-capital deficit of about **43,208,000,000**.

Again, this does not mean imminent distress. But it does mean the business has less short-term balance-sheet flexibility than the brand quality might make investors assume. If growth disappoints or working capital turns less favorable, that cushion is thinner than the equity story suggests.

### 3) The business is highly profitable — but the cash conversion is deteriorated enough to matter
This company posts elite margins:

- **Gross margin: 80.65%**
- **Operating margin: 43.13%**
- **Net margin: 35.35%**
- **ROE: 59.09%**
- **ROIC: 29.73%**

That is the bull case. I get it.

But the cash-flow statement tells a less flattering story. When I see **net income of 102.4B** and only **28.99B of free cash flow**, I have to ask whether current profitability is overstating owner economics. Owner economics means the cash that can actually be distributed or reinvested without weakening the business.

The supporting efficiency metrics are not exactly pristine either:

- **Inventory turnover: 1.24**
- **Days inventory outstanding: 294.02**
- **Receivables turnover: 3.04**
- **Days sales outstanding: 120.23**

Those are long inventory and receivable cycles in absolute terms. Yes, the reported **cash conversion cycle is -472.02**, but that figure is unusual enough that I would not lean on it as a comfort point when the simpler facts already show weak free cash generation after capex.

### 4) Shareholder returns are outrunning free cash flow
This is a big one.

In FY2025:

- **Free cash flow: 28,989,000,000**
- **Dividends paid: 51,763,000,000**
- **Buybacks: 1,388,000,000**

So total cash returned to shareholders was about **53,151,000,000**, which is almost **1.83x free cash flow**.

That means shareholder distributions were not covered by free cash flow. That is not inherently fatal for one year, especially with financing capacity, but it is absolutely a risk factor when investors are treating the equity story as safe and compounding.

The dividend data also shows no obvious acceleration to offset this concern:

- **Dividend yield: 2.53%**
- **Payout ratio: 44.64%**

The payout ratio based on earnings looks fine. The problem is that the **cash payout coverage** looks much worse than the earnings payout ratio suggests.

### 5) The stock is acting worse than the headline “Buy” consensus implies
Price action is not a thesis by itself, but it matters when fundamentals are already mixed.

At **45.71**, the stock is:

- Below the **50-day average of 47.309**
- Below the **200-day average of 46.462**
- Below the **20-day SMA of 47.483**
- Below the **50-day EMA of 46.921**

That is not leadership behavior.

It is also much closer to the **52-week low of 35.12** than the **52-week high of
Data snapshot (figures as of generation)
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      "date": "2020-07-31",
      "action": "maintain",
      "company": "KeyBanc",
      "toGrade": "Overweight",
      "fromGrade": "Overweight"
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    {
      "date": "2020-07-30",
      "action": "maintain",
      "company": "Raymond James",
      "toGrade": "Outperform",
      "fromGrade": "Outperform"
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    {
      "date": "2020-07-22",
      "action": "upgrade",
      "company": "B of A Securities",
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    {
      "date": "2020-07-09",
      "action": "maintain",
      "company": "Raymond James",
      "toGrade": "Outperform",
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    {
      "date": "2020-06-18",
      "action": "maintain",
      "company": "B of A Securities",
      "toGrade": "Neutral",
      "fromGrade": "Neutral"
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    {
      "date": "2020-06-15",
      "action": "upgrade",
      "company": "Credit Suisse",
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    {
      "date": "2020-05-20",
      "action": "downgrade",
      "company": "B of A Securities",
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    {
      "date": "2020-05-19",
      "action": "downgrade",
      "company": "Credit Suisse",
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      "fromGrade": "Outperform"
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    {
      "date": "2020-05-15",
      "action": "maintain",
      "company": "Raymond James",
      "toGrade": "Outperform",
      "fromGrade": "Outperform"
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    {
      "date": "2020-04-08",
      "action": "maintain",
      "company": "Credit Suisse",
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      "fromGrade": "Outperform"
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    {
      "date": "2020-04-07",
      "action": "maintain",
      "company": "Raymond James",
      "toGrade": "Outperform",
      "fromGrade": "Outperform"
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    {
      "date": "2020-03-27",
      "action": "maintain",
      "company": "JP Morgan",
      "toGrade": "Overweight",
      "fromGrade": "Overweight"
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    {
      "date": "2020-02-19",
      "action": "maintain",
      "company": "KeyBanc",
      "toGrade": "Overweight",
      "fromGrade": "Overweight"
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    {
      "date": "2020-01-17",
      "action": "maintain",
      "company": "B of A Securities",
      "toGrade": "Neutral",
      "fromGrade": "Neutral"
    },
    {
      "date": "2020-01-06",
      "action": "maintain",
      "company": "Ladenburg Thalmann",
      "toGrade": "Buy",
      "fromGrade": "Buy"
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    {
      "date": "2020-01-03",
      "action": "downgrade",
      "company": "Guggenheim Securities",
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      "fromGrade": "Buy"
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    {
      "date": "2020-01-03",
      "action": "downgrade",
      "company": "Guggenheim",
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      "fromGrade": "Buy"
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    {
      "date": "2019-11-18",
      "action": "downgrade",
      "company": "UBS",
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      "fromGrade": "Buy"
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    {
      "date": "2019-11-18",
      "action": "upgrade",
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      "date": "2019-10-07",
      "action": "maintain",
      "company": "KeyBanc",
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      "fromGrade": "Overweight"
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    {
      "date": "2019-09-17",
      "action": "upgrade",
      "company": "Citigroup",
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    {
      "date": "2019-09-13",
      "action": "maintain",
      "company": "Bank of America",
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      "fromGrade": "Neutral"
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      "date": "2019-08-30",
      "action": "downgrade",
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      "date": "2019-08-20",
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    {
      "date": "2019-08-20",
      "action": "maintain",
      "company": "KeyBanc",
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      "fromGrade": "Overweight"
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    {
      "date": "2019-08-20",
      "action": "maintain",
      "company": "Baird",
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      "fromGrade": "Outperform"
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    {
      "date": "2019-08-19",
      "action": "maintain",
      "company": "JP Morgan",
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    {
      "date": "2019-08-19",
      "action": "maintain",
      "company": "Goldman Sachs",
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    {
      "date": "2019-08-19",
      "action": "maintain",
      "company": "Bank of America",
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      "date": "2019-06-20",
      "action": "downgrade",
      "company": "Deutsche Bank",
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    {
      "date": "2019-06-11",
      "action": "upgrade",
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    {
      "date": "2019-04-29",
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    {
      "date": "2019-01-29",
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      "company": "Exane BNP Paribas",
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    {
      "date": "2018-12-14",
      "action": "maintain",
      "company": "Morgan Stanley",
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    {
      "date": "2018-11-19",
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      "date": "2018-10-08",
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      "date": "2018-10-08",
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      "company": "Bank of America",
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    {
      "date": "2017-12-29",
      "action": "upgrade",
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      "date": "2017-12-06",
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    {
      "date": "2017-12-06",
      "action": "upgrade",
      "company": "Bank of America",
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      "date": "2017-12-01",
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      "date": "2017-09-06",
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      "date": "2017-09-06",
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      "date": "2016-12-06",
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      "date": "2016-10-31",
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      "date": "2016-10-28",
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      "date": "2016-09-23",
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      "date": "2016-09-14",
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      "date": "2016-09-12",
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      "date": "2016-09-09",
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      "date": "2016-08-31",
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      "date": "2016-08-08",
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      "date": "2015-10-19",
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      "date": "2015-01-28",
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      "date": "2014-02-24",
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      "date": "2014-01-31",
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