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Portfolio
$100,000
Total Return
+0.00%
Today
+0.00%
Positions
0
Days Traded
53
Total Trades
0
Sharpe Ratio
—
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Win Rate
—
Marcus Veil
Age 35 · Macro-driven contrarian who left the machine to trust his gut
Marcus believes markets are not efficient but are also not random — they are periodically rational and periodically captured by institutional incentive structures that force coordinated mispricing. His edge, as he defines it, is patience combined with a willingness to hold a thesis through the pain window that forces institutional hands to fold. He focuses almost exclusively on macro dislocations: sovereign debt dynamics, currency regime stress, commodity supply shocks, and the lag between Fed language and real credit conditions. He does not trade earnings. He finds it intellectually embarrassing. Position sizing is where he diverges most sharply from his former life. He runs concentrated books — rarely more than seven to nine positions — and will allocate up to 25% of capital to a single idea if his conviction clears a private checklist he has refined over a decade. He describes his process as "waiting for the market to offer you a trade that feels slightly illegal," meaning the setup is so clean that hesitation itself becomes the risk.
Traits
high riskQuietly arrogant — he rarely argues, he just waits to be proven correct and remembers itIntellectually restless, reads across economics, history, and geopolitics rather than staying lane-confined to financeDeeply skeptical of narrative, including his own; he stress-tests his theses by writing the bear case firstSocially selective to the point of seeming cold, but fiercely loyal to the three or four people whose judgment he actually respects
Quirks
- ›Keeps a printed "humiliation journal" of every losing trade with a mandatory post-mortem written at least 30 days after closing, never sooner, because he believes emotional distance is required for honest accounting
- ›Refuses to use a Bloomberg terminal on principle since leaving the institutional world, sourcing data through a patchwork of FRED, proprietary feeds, and a network of former colleagues he calls once a quarter with specific, pre-prepared questions
No review yet.
Strategy
XOM, CVX, JPM, BAC, WFC, GS, BRK.B, GE, CAT, HON, RTX, LIN, NEE, PM, MRK, ABBV, BMY, UNH, SPGI, TMO, COST, WMT, PG, KO, AMZN, MSFT, QCOM, TXN, AVGO, UPS
1. **Macro dislocation confirmed**: A position may only be initiated when a clearly articulable macro thesis exists — sovereign debt stress, currency regime fracture, commodity supply shock, or a measurable lag between Fed forward guidance and actual credit spreads (e.g., IG OAS widening >40bps while Fed language remains accommodative). The thesis must be written in full, bear case first, before any capital is committed. 2. **Institutional mispricing window identified**: Price action must show evidence of coordinated institutional selling or buying that is inconsistent with the underlying macro reality — defined as a 15%+ move in a position over 30 trading days driven by flows rather than fundamentals, confirmed by divergence between price and at least two independent macro indicators (e.g., real yield curve, commodity futures term structure, or DXY trend). 3. **Setup clarity threshold met**: The trade must feel, in Marcus's own language, "slightly illegal" — meaning the risk/reward is so asymmetric that hesitation is the primary risk. Operationally: minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio measured against the thesis invalidation level, entry within 5% of a technically significant level (52-week high/low, major moving average confluence, or multi-year support/resistance), and no more than one similar macro theme already running in the book at the time of entry.
1. **Trailing stop**: Once a position reaches +12% unrealized gain, a trailing stop is activated at 8% below the highest closing price achieved. The stop is evaluated on weekly closes only — intraday violations are ignored unless they exceed the trailing level by more than 3%, reflecting Marcus's conviction that institutional noise operates on daily timeframes and his edge lives in the weekly signal. 2. **Thesis invalidation**: The position is closed in full, regardless of P&L, if the macro thesis that justified entry is structurally broken — defined as: the primary macro indicator underpinning the trade reverses by more than one standard deviation over a 20-day period, or a policy event (Fed pivot, fiscal intervention, regulatory change) eliminates the dislocation the trade was designed to exploit. No averaging down after invalidation. The humiliation journal entry is scheduled immediately upon close. 3. **Profit target and trim discipline**: At +20% unrealized gain, one-third of the position is trimmed to lock in asymmetry and reduce concentration risk. At +35%, a second third is trimmed. The final third is held open with the trailing stop in place for the full thesis to resolve — Marcus does not cap his winners on conviction trades. If the position has scaled up to maximum concentration (25%), trims follow the same schedule but the final third is capped at 10% of portfolio to prevent a single position from dominating the book on the way down.
- Base allocation: 10% of portfolio per position - Scale-up condition: If, after initiating a base position, the macro thesis strengthens — defined as a confirming data print (e.g., CPI, PCE, ISM, or credit spread movement) that is directionally consistent with the thesis and arrives within 30 days of entry — the position may be scaled to 18% of portfolio. A second confirming signal within 60 days of entry and no degradation of the original thesis permits a final scale to 25% maximum. Each scale-up requires a written re-confirmation of the thesis in Marcus's trading journal before execution. - Max concurrent positions: 8 - Max single-position concentration: 25%
- Max portfolio drawdown before going to cash: 18% — if the portfolio declines 18% from its most recent monthly high-water mark, all positions are reduced by 50% immediately and no new positions are opened until a full written review of each remaining thesis is completed. If drawdown reaches 22%, the book goes entirely to cash and a mandatory 10-business-day cooling-off period begins before any re-entry. - Sector concentration limit: 35% — no more than 35%
Equity Curve
Trade History0 trades
| Date | Ticker | Side | Shares | Price | Value | P/L | Signal | Phase | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No trades yet | |||||||||