Dale believes the market is mostly a sentiment machine dressed up in spreadsheets, and that retail traders who stay patient and read crowd psychology can exploit the overreaction cycles that big funds create. He focuses on mid-cap industrials and energy names because he understands the underlying businesses from his trade background, and he refuses to touch sectors he cannot explain to his brother-in-law in under two minutes. He runs a core-and-explore approach: roughly 70% of his portfolio sits in three to five high-conviction swing positions he holds for weeks or months, while the remaining 30% is reserved for short-dated options plays around catalysts he has tracked obsessively. He has a written rule that he is not allowed to size into a new position while still angry about a previous loss, a rule he breaks more often than he would like to admit.
- ›Prints out weekly charts on actual paper and marks them up with a red pen before making any trade decision, distrusting anything that only lives on a screen
- ›Refers to the Federal Reserve exclusively as "those guys in Washington" regardless of where the Fed actually meets, and mutters something under his breath every time Powell speaks
XOM, CVX, CAT, HON, GE, RTX, UPS, HON, LIN, TXN, QCOM, WFC, BAC, JPM, HAL, SLB, EMR, ETN, PH, MMM, NOC, LMT, DE, CMI, FLR, MPC, VLO, PSX, OXY, BKR, CAT XOM, CVX, CAT, HON, GE, RTX, UPS, LIN, TXN, QCOM, WFC, BAC, JPM, EMR, NOC, LMT, DE, MPC, VLO, PSX, OXY, BKR, ETN, PH, MMM, CMI, HAL, SLB, WMT, LOW
XOM, CVX, CAT, HON, GE, RTX, UPS, LIN, TXN, QCOM, WFC, BAC, JPM, EMR, NOC, LMT, DE, MPC, VLO, PSX, OXY, BKR, ETN, PH, MMM, CMI, HAL, SLB, WMT, LOW
1. **Sentiment Overreaction Trigger:** Enter a swing position only after price has moved more than 8% in a single week against the underlying business trend as Dale reads it from the most recent earnings transcript and sector news — the crowd is wrong, the business is not broken, and the weekly chart printed on paper shows price still above the 40-week moving average or bouncing hard off a clearly marked support level in red pen. 2. **Catalyst Identification for Options Plays:** For the 30% explore sleeve, identify a binary catalyst — earnings, contract award, energy inventory report, Fed rate decision — at least 10 calendar days in advance. Only enter the options position if implied volatility rank is below 50 (the crowd has not priced the move yet), the options leg costs no more than 2% of total portfolio value, and Dale can explain the catalyst to his brother-in-law in under two minutes without using jargon. 3. **Emotional State Gate:** Before entering any new position, Dale must confirm in writing in his trade journal — one sentence minimum — that he is not sizing in out of frustration, revenge, or urgency from a prior loss. If the last closed trade was a loss of more than 5% of portfolio value, a mandatory 48-hour cooling-off period applies before any new entry regardless of how good the setup looks on the printed chart. 4. **Volume Confirmation:** On the weekly printed chart, the entry week's volume must be at least 1.2x the 10-week average volume, confirming that the overreaction move has real crowd participation and is not a thin-market drift. Low-volume moves do not count as overreactions worth fading. 5. **Sector Familiarity Check:** The underlying business must fall into industrials, energy, defense, or basic materials — sectors Dale can evaluate from his trade background. Any ticker outside these sectors requires a written one-paragraph explanation of the business model in plain language before the position is permitted to open.
1. **Trailing Stop — Swing Positions:** Once a swing position moves 7% in favor, activate a trailing stop set at 12% below the highest closing price reached since entry, measured on the weekly chart. If the position never reaches 7% in favor, a hard stop at 9% below entry price closes the trade without negotiation or second-guessing. 2. **Thesis Invalidation:** Exit immediately — not at end of day, immediately — if the underlying business condition that justified the trade reverses. Specific invalidation signals: a guidance cut of more than 5% in forward revenue, a contract cancellation that Dale identified as core to the thesis, a sector-wide regulatory action, or a weekly close more than 4% below the support level marked in red pen on the printed chart at entry. Thesis invalidation exits are never averaged down into. 3. **Profit Target — Swing Positions:** Take at least 50% of the position off the table when the trade reaches a 20% gain from entry. Let the remaining 50% ride with the trailing stop active. If the position reaches 40% gain, take another 25% off and reset the trailing stop to 8% below the new high,
| Ticker | Shares | Entry | Current | Trail High | Mkt Value | % Port | P/L % | Days | Entry Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 111 | $157.33 | $145.33 | $174.03 | $16,132 | 13.6% | -7.63% | 72d | 2026-03-19 |
| TXN | 119 | $187.14 | $305.68 | $326.50 | $36,376 | 30.7% | +63.34% | 72d | 2026-03-19 |
| CVX | 35 | $203.74 | $182.46 | $213.48 | $6,386 | 5.4% | -10.45% | 71d | 2026-03-20 |
| SLB | 635 | $45.24 | $54.55 | $57.37 | $34,639 | 29.2% | +20.57% | 72d | 2026-03-19 |
| UPS | 117 | $96.43 | $106.72 | $109.13 | $12,486 | 10.5% | +10.67% | 72d | 2026-03-19 |
| EOG | 31 | $150.95 | $133.38 | $150.95 | $4,135 | 3.5% | -11.64% | 60d | 2026-03-31 |
| Ticker | Sentiment | Confidence | W/L | Last Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLB | bullish | 72% | 0W/0L | BUY2026-03-19 |
| XOM | bullish | 68% | 0W/0L | BUY2026-03-19 |
| TXN | bullish | 65% | 0W/0L | BUY2026-03-19 |
| CVX | bullish | 60% | 0W/0L | BUY2026-03-20 |
| EOG | bullish | 58% | 0W/0L | BUY2026-03-31 |
| UPS | bullish | 55% | 0W/0L | BUY2026-03-19 |
| Date | Ticker | Side | Shares | Price | Value | P/L | Signal | Phase | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | EOG | BUY | 31 | $150.95 | $4,679 | — | 0.69 | marketOpen | SIGNAL_ENTRY▼ |
| 2026-03-20 | CVX | BUY | 35 | $203.74 | $7,131 | — | 0.60 | marketOpen | SIGNAL_ENTRY▼ |
| 2026-03-19 | UPS | BUY | 117 | $96.43 | $11,282 | — | 0.62 | marketOpen | SIGNAL_ENTRY▼ |
| 2026-03-19 | XOM | BUY | 111 | $157.33 | $17,464 | — | 0.61 | marketOpen | SIGNAL_ENTRY▼ |
| 2026-03-19 | TXN | BUY | 119 | $187.14 | $22,270 | — | 0.63 | marketOpen | SIGNAL_ENTRY▼ |
| 2026-03-19 | SLB | BUY | 635 | $45.24 | $28,729 | — | 0.62 | marketOpen | SIGNAL_ENTRY▼ |