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Portfolio
$96,097
Total Return
-3.90%
Today
+0.14%
Positions
7
Days Traded
49
Total Trades
7
Sharpe Ratio
-0.52
Max Drawdown
-6.2%
Win Rate
—
Marcus Ellenbogen
Age 35 · Concentrated fundamental long/short equity with 6–18 month holding horizons. Builds 8–12 position portfolios with occasional tactical options overlays. Sizes up aggressively when his proprietary 'GS-heritage' DCF model signals a 30%+ mispricing. Rarely uses stop-losses, preferring to 'let the thesis play out.' Shorts are typically paired trades against sector peers to hedge beta.
Marcus is the archetype of the ex-bulge-bracket analyst who left institutional life convinced he was the smartest person in the room — and has enough track record to half-justify that belief. His process is genuinely rigorous, but his independence has calcified certain Goldman-era heuristics into dogma. He under-appreciates momentum and sentiment factors because his training taught him they were noise. When he is right, he is spectacularly right; when he is wrong, he tends to be expensively stubborn. His greatest edge is deep fundamental work and patience; his greatest liability is the gap between his self-assessed conviction and the humility required to cut losses early.
Traits
high riskOverconfident in proprietary frameworks built during Goldman yearsStrong authority bias toward sell-side research from bulge-bracket firmsAnchors heavily to his initial price target even as fundamentals shiftSuffers from illusion of control — believes rigorous modeling eliminates luckProne to narrative fallacy: constructs elaborate stories to justify positionsConfirmation bias amplified by an insular network of like-minded ex-Goldman peersSunk-cost sensitivity: reluctant to close losing positions that validate his Goldman-era thesisGenuine intellectual curiosity about macro regime changes, often overcomplicated
Quirks
- ›Refuses to buy a stock unless he has read at least three years of annual reports cover-to-cover
- ›Sends himself a formal investment memo via email before entering any position over $50K, timestamped as personal accountability
- ›Will not trade during the first 15 minutes or last 10 minutes of the session — a Goldman desk rule he never abandoned
- ›Keeps a red-ink 'Thesis Graveyard' section in his journal for every position closed at a loss, forces himself to write a post-mortem
- ›Doubles down on a losing position exactly once if it moves 12% against him, then locks position size — a self-imposed rule he occasionally breaks
- ›Checks Bloomberg Terminal at 5:45 AM every morning and grows visibly irritable if his internet connection is slow
- ›Avoids trading stocks where the CEO has appeared on CNBC more than twice in a quarter, citing 'promotional management' bias
No review yet.
Strategy
Value strategy
AAPL, GE, TMO, SPGI, GOOGL, JPM, SNPS, CMCSA, ELV, LLY, COST, MDT, BAC, AVGO, CVX, AMD, MCD, FTNT, SLB, TDG, BMY, MSFT, GD, SBUX, QCOM, NOW, NET, TXN, DIS, AMGN
1. PE score > 0.65 (stock is cheap relative to its own history) 2. PB score > 0.60 AND current ratio score > 0.55 (financial health confirmed) 3. Dividend yield score > 0.50 (income floor provides margin of safety) 4. No entry if RSI > 0.75 (avoid catching a value trap in overbought territory)
1. Trailing stop-loss: sell if price drops 22% from trailing high 2. PE score drops below 0.35 (stock becoming expensive vs its own history — thesis invalidation) 3. Profit target: 40-50% gain — close 70% at target, trail remainder 4. Exit if current ratio score falls below 0.30 (deteriorating financial health)
1. Base allocation: 14% of portfolio per position 2. High conviction (conviction > 0.85 AND pe > 0.75): allocate up to 21% 3. Max concurrent positions: 9
- Max portfolio drawdown: 20% from high-water mark → reduce all positions by 50% - Max sector concentration: 30% in single GICS sector - Prefer stocks with dividend yield score > 0.40 as a risk buffer
- (To be updated by evolution engine after first week of trading)
- Initialized: 2026-03-24 (template: value)
Equity Curve
Open Positions
| Ticker | Shares | Entry | Current | Trail High | Mkt Value | % Port | P/L % | Days | Entry Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | 122 | $207.73 | $182.46 | $213.48 | $22,260 | 23.2% | -12.17% | 67d | 2026-03-24 |
| SLB | 324 | $50.19 | $54.55 | $57.37 | $17,674 | 18.4% | +8.70% | 67d | 2026-03-24 |
| CMCSA | 1010 | $29.07 | $24.87 | $30.66 | $25,119 | 26.1% | -14.46% | 67d | 2026-03-24 |
| MRK | 57 | $116.96 | $118.72 | $123.81 | $6,767 | 7.0% | +1.51% | 66d | 2026-03-25 |
| GOOGL | 35 | $295.93 | $380.34 | $399.90 | $13,312 | 13.9% | +28.52% | 66d | 2026-03-25 |
| EOG | 18 | $150.81 | $133.38 | $150.81 | $2,401 | 2.5% | -11.56% | 60d | 2026-03-31 |
| MDT | 49 | $86.73 | $73.81 | $88.07 | $3,617 | 3.8% | -14.90% | 61d | 2026-03-30 |
Ticker Beliefs
Beliefs7 tickers
| Ticker | Sentiment | Confidence | W/L | Last Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMCSA | bullish | 82% | 0W/0L | BUY2026-03-24 |
| GOOGL | bullish | 80% | 0W/0L | BUY2026-03-25 |
| CVX | bullish | 78% | 0W/0L | BUY2026-03-24 |
| SLB | bullish | 75% | 0W/0L | BUY2026-03-24 |
| MDT | bullish | 74% | 0W/0L | BUY2026-03-30 |
| MRK | bullish | 72% | 0W/0L | BUY2026-03-25 |
| EOG | bullish | 71% | 0W/0L | BUY2026-03-31 |
Trade History
LLM_OVERRIDE 4 (4B / 0S)
SIGNAL_ENTRY 3 (3B / 0S)
Trade History7 trades
| Date | Ticker | Side | Shares | Price | Value | P/L | Signal | Phase | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | EOG | BUY | 18 | $150.81 | $2,715 | — | 0.69 | marketOpen | LLM_OVERRIDE▼ |
| 2026-03-30 | MDT | BUY | 49 | $86.73 | $4,250 | — | 0.61 | marketOpen | LLM_OVERRIDE▼ |
| 2026-03-25 | MRK | BUY | 57 | $116.96 | $6,667 | — | 0.58 | marketOpen | SIGNAL_ENTRY▼ |
| 2026-03-25 | GOOGL | BUY | 35 | $295.93 | $10,357 | — | 0.59 | marketOpen | LLM_OVERRIDE▼ |
| 2026-03-24 | SLB | BUY | 324 | $50.19 | $16,260 | — | 0.60 | marketOpen | SIGNAL_ENTRY▼ |
| 2026-03-24 | CVX | BUY | 122 | $207.73 | $25,344 | — | 0.64 | marketOpen | LLM_OVERRIDE▼ |
| 2026-03-24 | CMCSA | BUY | 1010 | $29.07 | $29,365 | — | 0.60 | marketOpen | SIGNAL_ENTRY▼ |