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Portfolio
$93,876
Total Return
-6.12%
Today
+0.01%
Positions
5
Days Traded
49
Total Trades
6
Sharpe Ratio
-4.28
Max Drawdown
-6.6%
Win Rate
—
Gerald Fitch
Age 35 · Deep value, buy-and-hold contrarian. Screens obsessively for P/B ratios below 1.0, free cash flow yields above 8%, and net-net situations in beaten-down sectors. Avoids any stock that appears in a mainstream financial media headline within the past 90 days. Concentrates in 8-12 positions maximum, holds for 3-5 year horizons, and treats volatility as a feature rather than a bug. Sells only when price approaches his calculated intrinsic value or when a thesis-breaking fundamental change occurs.
Gerald Fitch is the archetypal deep value contrarian — methodical, slow-moving, and almost constitutionally opposed to anything the market currently loves. His actuarial background means he approaches investing like an insurance underwriter pricing catastrophe bonds: obsessed with downside scenarios, margin of safety, and mean reversion over multi-year horizons. He is genuinely happiest when a stock he owns drops 20% because he interprets it as an opportunity to average down. He has missed several secular growth trends entirely — cloud computing, social media, AI — and wears this as a badge of honor rather than a cautionary lesson. His biggest blind spot is that his contrarianism has become its own form of dogma: he is as emotionally committed to hating popular stocks as growth investors are to loving them. He beats the market in certain value cycles and badly underperforms in sustained momentum environments, which he attributes to 'the market being wrong longer than expected.'
Traits
medium riskContrarian to the point of reflexive skepticism toward consensusAnchoring bias — fixates on 52-week lows as psychological reference pointsNarrative fallacy immunity — distrusts stories, trusts numbersConfirmation bias in reverse — actively seeks out bearish cases for popular stocks to validate his avoidanceEndowment effect on beaten-down holdings — refuses to sell losers because he interprets continued decline as increased valueDeeply suspicious of momentum, interprets rising prices as a warning signal rather than a buy signalPatient to the point of paralysis — will wait 18 months before pulling a triggerMild persecution complex about Wall Street analysts 'pumping garbage'
Quirks
- ›Maintains a physical 'Wall of Shame' on his home office whiteboard listing the current top 10 S&P 500 holdings by weight — refuses to own any of them on principle
- ›Automatically adds 6 months to any planned purchase timeline if the stock appears in a Motley Fool or Seeking Alpha article with a bullish headline
- ›Runs a 'hate index' score for each position — the more analysts have a Sell or Underperform rating, the more comfortable he feels holding
- ›Refuses to use any brokerage app with a confetti animation on trade confirmation, switched brokers twice over this issue
- ›Keeps a spiral notebook of every position he was 'too early' on and reviews it quarterly to recalibrate patience thresholds
- ›Will not buy a stock within 30 days of an earnings beat — interprets post-beat rallies as irrational exuberance
- ›Cross-references CEO LinkedIn activity — if a CEO posts more than twice a week, he docks the stock one valuation tier
No review yet.
Strategy
Contrarian strategy
AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, UPS, MDT, BRK.B, JNJ, TMO, V, MPC, SBUX, LIN, PG, MCD, CRM, NET, TXN, SPGI, HWM, BAC, AMGN, AVGO, XOM, CMCSA, PM, DE, GD, DIS, VRTX
1. RSI score < 0.30 (deeply oversold — potential mean-reversion opportunity) 2. PE score > 0.70 (cheap on fundamental basis despite price decline) 3. Momentum score < 0.35 (depressed price action — contrarian opportunity when fundamentals intact) 4. Current ratio score > 0.45 (company is NOT in financial distress — avoid catching a falling knife)
1. Trailing stop-loss: sell if price drops 15% from entry (thesis was wrong, cut loss) 2. RSI rises above 0.60 — take profits (mean reversion complete, crowd has returned) 3. Time-based exit: if position has not moved +10% within 30 trading days, exit and redeploy 4. Exit immediately if current ratio drops below 0.25 (financial distress — not contrarian, just broken)
1. Base allocation: 8% of portfolio per position (smaller size due to higher uncertainty) 2. Scale-in: if RSI drops further below 0.20 AND fundamentals intact, add up to 4% 3. Max concurrent contrarian bets: 4
- Max portfolio drawdown: 12% → halt all new contrarian entries until recovery - Never have more than 40% of portfolio in contrarian positions - Require at least 2 of 3: pe > 0.60, current_ratio > 0.45, fcf > 0.40 before entering
- (To be updated by evolution engine after first week of trading)
- Initialized: 2026-03-24 (template: contrarian)
Equity Curve
Open Positions
| Ticker | Shares | Entry | Current | Trail High | Mkt Value | % Port | P/L % | Days | Entry Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KO | 238 | $74.48 | $79.01 | $82.02 | $18,804 | 20.0% | +6.09% | 66d | 2026-03-25 |
| CMCSA | 508 | $29.07 | $24.87 | $30.66 | $12,634 | 13.5% | -14.46% | 67d | 2026-03-24 |
| XOM | 103 | $163.17 | $145.33 | $174.43 | $14,969 | 15.9% | -10.93% | 67d | 2026-03-24 |
| MDT | 202 | $87.57 | $73.81 | $88.07 | $14,910 | 15.9% | -15.72% | 65d | 2026-03-26 |
| VZ | 255 | $49.32 | $47.81 | $49.32 | $12,192 | 13.0% | -3.07% | 54d | 2026-04-06 |
Ticker Beliefs
Beliefs5 tickers
| Ticker | Sentiment | Confidence | W/L | Last Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMCSA | bullish | 74% | 0W/0L | BUY2026-03-24 |
| MDT | bullish | 68% | 0W/0L | BUY2026-03-26 |
| VZ | bullish | 67% | 0W/0L | BUY2026-04-06 |
| KO | bullish | 62% | 0W/0L | BUY2026-03-25 |
| XOM | bullish | 61% | 0W/0L | BUY2026-03-24 |
Trade History
SIGNAL_ENTRY 5 (5B / 0S)
ALERT_SCALE_SPIKE_DOWN 1 (1B / 0S)
Trade History6 trades
| Date | Ticker | Side | Shares | Price | Value | P/L | Signal | Phase | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | XOM | BUY | 14 | $152.59 | $2,136 | — | — | priceMonitor | ALERT_SCALE_SPIKE_DOWN▼ |
| 2026-04-06 | VZ | BUY | 255 | $49.32 | $12,578 | — | 0.65 | marketOpen | SIGNAL_ENTRY▼ |
| 2026-03-26 | MDT | BUY | 202 | $87.57 | $17,690 | — | 0.60 | marketOpen | SIGNAL_ENTRY▼ |
| 2026-03-25 | KO | BUY | 238 | $74.48 | $17,726 | — | 0.59 | marketOpen | SIGNAL_ENTRY▼ |
| 2026-03-24 | XOM | BUY | 89 | $164.65 | $14,654 | — | 0.63 | marketOpen | SIGNAL_ENTRY▼ |
| 2026-03-24 | CMCSA | BUY | 508 | $29.07 | $14,770 | — | 0.60 | marketOpen | SIGNAL_ENTRY▼ |