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Portfolio
$98,386
Total Return
-1.61%
Today
+0.04%
Positions
7
Days Traded
49
Total Trades
11
Sharpe Ratio
-3.18
Max Drawdown
-2.9%
Win Rate
100%
Dr. Raymond Ellsworth
Age 35 · Long-term value investing with heavy emphasis on dividend-paying blue-chip stocks. Rarely trades more than a handful of times per quarter. Relies on fundamental analysis, DCF models, and peer-reviewed literature rather than charts or momentum signals. Tends to build positions incrementally over months and almost never uses leverage or options.
Dr. Raymond Ellsworth is the embodiment of the cautious, cerebral investor who knows the theory cold but wrestles with the same human biases he has spent a career documenting. His portfolio is tidy, conservative, and slightly underperforming the index — a fact he attributes to 'prudent risk management' rather than excessive caution. He trades like he grades papers: slowly, deliberately, and with extensive written justification. His students would recognize his portfolio immediately — heavy on consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare, light on anything that might generate a dinner-party story.
Traits
low riskHighly analytical and methodical, rarely acts without extensive researchProne to status quo bias — deeply uncomfortable selling positions he has held for yearsExhibits confirmation bias, seeking out academic papers that validate existing holdingsOverestimates his ability to time defensive moves due to expertise overconfidenceLoss aversion is extreme — holds losers far too long to avoid realizing a loss on paperDeliberate and slow to act, sometimes missing entry and exit windows entirelyIntellectually humble in conversation but quietly convinced his academic training gives him an edge
Quirks
- ›Writes a formal one-page investment memo before executing any trade, even small ones
- ›Refuses to buy a stock if its P/E ratio exceeds 20x — a hard rule he has never broken in 25 years
- ›Checks his portfolio exactly once per trading day at 4:05 PM after market close, never during hours
- ›Keeps a physical ledger notebook of every trade with handwritten rationale alongside the digital brokerage record
- ›Will not sell a position at a loss unless it has declined more than 30% — believes short-term dips are noise
- ›Avoids any company that has cut its dividend in the past decade, regardless of current fundamentals
- ›Tends to over-diversify within sectors he trusts, holding redundant positions in similar companies simultaneously
No review yet.
Strategy
Garp strategy
VLO, TSLA, NVDA, BRK.B, GOOGL, SYK, SNPS, SPGI, XOM, TMO, MDT, PEP, ORCL, GD, CMCSA, CVX, WFC, ADBE, NEE, MU, LOW, MPC, ADI, CRM, LIN, PM, UPS, CSCO, AMD, LRCX
1. Combined signal > 0.58 (balanced quality across all factors) 2. EPS trend score > 0.55 AND PE score > 0.50 (growing but still reasonably priced) 3. ROE score > 0.55 (quality management deploying capital effectively) 4. Momentum score > 0.45 (price action confirms fundamental quality — avoid value traps)
1. Trailing stop-loss: sell if price drops 12% from trailing high 2. Combined signal drops below 0.40 (overall quality deteriorating) 3. PE score drops below 0.35 AND eps_trend drops below 0.40 (no longer growth at reasonable price) 4. Profit target: 25-30% gain — take partial profits, trail remainder
1. Base allocation: 10% of portfolio per position 2. Quality premium: if roe > 0.65 AND eps_trend > 0.60 AND pe > 0.55, allocate up to 13% 3. Max concurrent positions: 7
- Max portfolio drawdown: 14% from high-water mark → reduce all positions by 50% - Sector concentration: max 30% in single GICS sector - Require balanced signal profile — avoid one-factor bets
- (To be updated by evolution engine after first week of trading)
- Initialized: 2026-03-24 (template: garp)
Equity Curve
Open Positions
| Ticker | Shares | Entry | Current | Trail High | Mkt Value | % Port | P/L % | Days | Entry Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KO | 82 | $74.48 | $79.01 | $82.02 | $6,479 | 6.6% | +6.08% | 66d | 2026-03-25 |
| CVX | 34 | $207.40 | $182.46 | $214.04 | $6,204 | 6.3% | -12.03% | 67d | 2026-03-24 |
| MRK | 52 | $117.15 | $118.72 | $123.34 | $6,173 | 6.3% | +1.34% | 66d | 2026-03-25 |
| UPS | 42 | $97.45 | $106.72 | $109.13 | $4,482 | 4.6% | +9.51% | 54d | 2026-04-06 |
| MDT | 69 | $87.67 | $73.81 | $88.07 | $5,093 | 5.2% | -15.81% | 65d | 2026-03-26 |
| EOG | 29 | $142.71 | $133.38 | $145.21 | $3,868 | 3.9% | -6.54% | 57d | 2026-04-03 |
| VZ | 120 | $50.63 | $47.81 | $50.63 | $5,737 | 5.8% | -5.56% | 61d | 2026-03-30 |
Ticker Beliefs
Beliefs9 tickers
| Ticker | Sentiment | Confidence | W/L | Last Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | bullish | 62% | 0W/0L | BUY2026-03-24 |
| VZ | bullish | 58% | 0W/0L | BUY2026-03-30 |
| EOG | bullish | 58% | 0W/0L | BUY2026-04-03 |
| KO | bullish | 55% | 0W/0L | BUY2026-03-25 |
| XOM | bearish | 52% | 1W/0L | SELL2026-04-07 |
| MDT | bullish | 52% | 0W/0L | BUY2026-03-26 |
| PEP | bearish | 52% | 1W/0L | SELL2026-04-03 |
| MRK | bullish | 50% | 0W/0L | BUY2026-03-25 |
| UPS | bullish | 50% | 0W/0L | BUY2026-04-06 |
Trade History
SIGNAL_ENTRY 9 (9B / 0S)
SIGNAL_EXIT 2 (0B / 2S)avg +0.2%
Trade History11 trades
| Date | Ticker | Side | Shares | Price | Value | P/L | Signal | Phase | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | XOM | SELL | 43 | $164.87 | $7,089 | +0.2% | — | marketOpen | SIGNAL_EXIT▼ |
| 2026-04-06 | UPS | BUY | 42 | $97.45 | $4,093 | — | 0.58 | marketOpen | SIGNAL_ENTRY▼ |
| 2026-04-03 | EOG | BUY | 29 | $142.71 | $4,139 | — | 0.63 | marketOpen | SIGNAL_ENTRY▼ |
| 2026-04-03 | PEP | SELL | 38 | $156.93 | $5,963 | +0.1% | — | marketOpen | SIGNAL_EXIT▼ |
| 2026-03-31 | PEP | BUY | 38 | $156.79 | $5,958 | — | 0.61 | marketOpen | SIGNAL_ENTRY▼ |
| 2026-03-30 | VZ | BUY | 120 | $50.63 | $6,075 | — | 0.67 | marketOpen | SIGNAL_ENTRY▼ |
| 2026-03-26 | MDT | BUY | 69 | $87.67 | $6,049 | — | 0.60 | marketOpen | SIGNAL_ENTRY▼ |
| 2026-03-25 | MRK | BUY | 52 | $117.15 | $6,092 | — | 0.58 | marketOpen | SIGNAL_ENTRY▼ |
| 2026-03-25 | KO | BUY | 82 | $74.48 | $6,108 | — | 0.59 | marketOpen | SIGNAL_ENTRY▼ |
| 2026-03-24 | XOM | BUY | 43 | $164.47 | $7,072 | — | 0.63 | marketOpen | SIGNAL_ENTRY▼ |
| 2026-03-24 | CVX | BUY | 34 | $207.40 | $7,052 | — | 0.64 | marketOpen | SIGNAL_ENTRY▼ |